Question · Sample · paid UA in the US · Sep 17–21, 2026

Sample: does paid UA pay back in the US

No: a player costs three times what they bring

1Summary

Cost per player

$0.40

spend / 39 players · .tile.ad

Revenue per player

$0.13

n = 39 · .tile — neutral

ROAS

33% → 5%

CPI → tROAS · .tile.warn

Revenue on install day

80%

n = 39 · .tile.good

Short answers

Does paid UA in the US pay back

No. A player costs $0.40 and brings $0.13, and 80% of the revenue comes on the install day (3.1).

3Revenue metrics

A question report keeps only the blocks it needs, with the same numbers and in the same order.

3.1 Payback

$15.60 spend / 39 players = $0.40 per player revenue $5.07 / 39 = $0.13 per player → ROAS 33%
Top fiveEveryone else
$0 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 #1 player 1: $1.17 #2 player 2: $0.97 #3 player 3: $0.76 #4 player 4: $0.26 #5 player 5: $0.23 #6 player 6: $0.19 #7 player 7: $0.16 #8 player 8: $0.14 #9 player 9: $0.12 #10 player 10: $0.11 #11 player 11: $0.10 #12 player 12: $0.09 #13 player 13: $0.08 #14 player 14: $0.07 #15 player 15: $0.06 #16 player 16: $0.06 #17 player 17: $0.05 #18 player 18: $0.05 #19 player 19: $0.04 #20 player 20: $0.04 #21 player 21: $0.04 #22 player 22: $0.04 #23 player 23: $0.03 #24 player 24: $0.03 #25 player 25: $0.03 #26 player 26: $0.02 #27 player 27: $0.02 #28 player 28: $0.02 #29 player 29: $0.02 #30 player 30: $0.01 #31 player 31: $0.01 #32 player 32: $0.01 #33 player 33: $0.01 #34 player 34: $0.00 #35 player 35: $0.00 #36 player 36: $0.00 #37 player 37: $0.00 #38 player 38: $0.00 #39 player 39: $0.00 mean $0.13 median $0.04 top 5 = 67% of total 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 39 made-up players, ad revenue, descending
Revenue rests on five players of 39; the median is $0.04.

Interpretation. With no valuable players in the sample, a ROAS bid has nobody to buy.

6Hypotheses

H1 confidence high

Revenue per player is a third of its cost under any bidding strategy

Rests on: $0.13 vs $0.40 (3.1).

How to test: 7-day ARPU of the next paid cohort ≥ $0.40.

7Recommendations

Stop buying traffic for revenue

Keep a small budget only to compare builds.

Expected effect: $50 less loss a day.

How to measure: the daily UA margin in the next report.

→ H1

Method